Ubuntu With 200 Million Users in 4 Years?

It's been a while since I have written a post about Ubuntu Linux, but this goal is blog worthy I believe.  According to Digitizer:

Delivering the keynote at the Ubuntu Developer Summit at Budapest, Hungary, Canonical Founder, Mark Shuttleworth, has announced that the goal of Canonical is 200 million Ubuntu users in four years.

Whoaa! That is bold.  They currently have 12-15 million users and for this goal to happen they will have to double the number of users they have every year.  Is it possible?  Well, they are the only Linux distribution where numbers like that ever could be possible in the foreseeable future and the author of the article agrees:

I think that 200 million Ubuntu users in four years is certainly achievable - although it will require a lot of hard work.

One thing is for certain: if Ubuntu can generate numbers like that it will certainly change the face of computing!  And personally, I appreciate ambitious goal setting, especially from Shuttleworth, since he has had a proven track record of taking Linux to new heights.  (For those of you who can remember what Linux was like before Ubuntu.)

My First Experience with Ubuntu 10.04

First off I have to say that I have been using Ubuntu 9 for some time with little or no problems (there are a few minor things but mostly things that I don't really care about). But recently the department IT guys decided that they wanted to upgrade the department Linux computers (~50% of the computers in the department) to Ubuntu 10.04. So one day with little warning the computer in my office was upgraded (each office has at least one departmental computer, though most people just use their own). To explain my frustration with Ubuntu 10 I will tell my experience in story format which is only slightly fictional. I'm sure this particular style of writing has never been used on The Eternal Universe before, but it should be ok.

Begin Story:

As I walk to the door of my office I notice a piece of paper taped to my door. It is a short note explaining that the locks to my office have been changed. Instead of using the standard departmental key I have to use the standard campus wide key. OK, no problem I unlock the door and proceed to enter, when suddenly a sign pops up and says "You entry key will expire in 59 days, 18 hours, 14 minutes, 53 seconds!" OK, whatever. I tell it to go away.

I enter my office and immediately I am greeted by a cheerful, happy voice saying, "Hi!"

"Uh, hi." I respond. "Who are you?"

"I'm the new secretary, Ubuntu 10.04!"

"Uh, ok, whatever...uh where's my desk?"

"It's right here," pointing to a brand new, shining desk.

"Uh, ok, where's all my stuff?" I ask.

"What stuff?" Ubuntu replies.

"My stuff. The stuff that was sitting on top of my last desk."

"Oh, I put it in a folder."

"Uh, thanks, but I want it on top of my desk so I can use it."

Blank stare.

"Listen," I say, "I had all of that stuff on my desktop for a reason. I need it there for easy access."

Blank stare.

"Never mind," I say, "where is it? I'll just put it back." I rummage around in my desk and find the folder labeled "Desktop". That's stupid, I think, the whole reason why it was on the desktop in the first place was because I wanted it to be there, in plain view, not so that it could be filed away out of sight in a folder labeled "Desktop". I select the files I used to have on my desktop until Ubuntu 10.04 got over zealous on her first day and filed them away. I drag them over to my desktop and drop them on it. Before they even hit the surface of my desk a cheerful voice says, "Oh! Would you like to create a widget?"

"A what...wait...What? No I just want to put these files here on my desktop where I can see them."

Blank stare.

I try to put the files on my desktop again. "Would you like to create a widget?" Ubuntu asks again.

"No! I don't want a widget!" I reply. The files refuse to move onto my desktop. "OK, what is going on?" I ask Ubuntu.

"Would you like to create a widget?"

"Will that put the files back onto my desktop?"

"It will create a file and folder widget."

"OK fine whatever, just do it so I can access the files easily." A stack of "widgets" appear on my desktop, all on top of each other. OK this is a mess. I select the widget on top and drag it some place else. I go to move the second widget, but as soon as I move the second widget, the first one goes back to its original location, on top of the stack.

"What was that?" I ask.

Blank stare.

"OK whatever." I begin to move the first widget again, but as soon as I get it in place the second widget returns to the stack. I frantically begin moving "widgets" away from the stack. All of a sudden a copy of the first widget appears in place where I originally tried to put it. Suddenly copies of widgets start appearing out of nowhere. I select the whole mess and delete them all. I start hunting around to try and change some of the basic settings. I am desperately trying to find the one big button that says, "Reset to standard computer interface." No such luck. In all my left and right clicking around I accidentally select the wrong item in the left click menu and suddenly half of the items on my task bar disappear.

"Wait! What just happened?" I ask.

"Oh! would you like to create a widge..."

"NO!" I cut her off. "And what is your obsession with widgets anyway?" I go hunting around for some kind of task bar menu, or control panel. I find an option to add more widgets. Not helpful. I sit there and wonder who was the crazy person that designed it so that things could be removed so easily, by simply clicking the wrong thing in the left click menu, but makes it impossible to put them back. What ever happened to ctrl-z?

I eventually find a web browser, but unfortunately it seems to never have heard of a Google search tool bar. I go to Google and search for how to fix the problem. I finally find one site that says, you have to left click on the task bar and then select option X you can put it back the way it was. The only problem is I don't have option X. I just have to option to remove more stuff and to add widgets. I begin searching through the widgets. There are widgets for every imaginable useless thing ever invented. There is a widget for a bouncing ball. It makes a bouncing ball appear on your desktop and, get this, it bounces. Who would have thought. The ball is red. There are six different widgets to tell the time. There are widgets to link to Facebook. Great, I can update my Facebook status from my desktop, but I can't put a file on it. Still nothing to fix the task bar.

I start getting desperate. By almost random clicking I manage to create a new task bar only this one hangs down from the ceiling, and doesn't have anything in it. I tell it to go away. While I am trying to fix the original problem I open up a window to search through my files. Suddenly the window freezes.

"Uh, Ubuntu...that window is frozen. Can you make it go away."

Ubuntu tries, and fails. "Sorry I can't. Do you want to create a ..."

"NO!" I try to figure out what went wrong. In my searching around I notice that I can create a widget that puts a terminal on the desktop. Oh, that might be useful. I start it up and a terminal display opens up. One problem, it's small. Like really, really small. I can fit a maximum of 27 characters on a line. I have never been so constrained since using my TI-83. I try to make it bigger. I notice that for every widget there is a menu bar that pops out every time I hover over it. I notice that there are four buttons in the menu, but the only problem is that two of the buttons don't do anything and of the two buttons that do do something one deletes the widget, the other brings up more options (one of which deletes the widget). OK that was useless. Seriously everywhere I look there is an option to get rid of every single thing in sight but it seems that the only option available to add anything is to add widgets and task bars in odd locations. Who designed this thing?!?!?!? A monkey in Madagascar? (OK so I don't think that Madagascar has monkeys, so that can't be it, perhaps it was some modern, or post-modern artist. Lots of bright colors and zero functionality. Or maybe it was something worse, like an existentialist philosopher. Yeah that makes sense, because it seems that Ubuntu 10 was designed so that everything imaginable could be deleted quite easily and the only things that can be added are widgets, which have a menu that doesn't do anything.) Anyway back to the story.

By now I am getting quite frustrated, and the windows have stopped working so I quickly head for the door and hope that if I just step out for a moment everything will reset. I step out and close the door. As I enter I am confronted with another message saying, "You entry key will expire in 59 days, 17 hours, 32 minutes, 16 seconds!" Yeah, like that won't get annoying.

I peek in and glance at my desk. Everything is still a mess. Ubuntu smiles happily and says, "Hi! Do you want to make a widget?" I run screaming from the room.

After that I went and found another computer, this time with something sensible like Windows 7 and I email my department IT people. I say simply, "There is a virus in my office. I calls itself Ubuntu 10.04. Can you please come take care of it."

Are Google Apps Adequate?

Two years ago I predicted by 2010 we would see a Google OS using Linux as a portal to their web applications. I speculated it would be based on Ubuntu, that's yet to be determined, but I will confess that that part of the prediction may be wrong.

Now I want to speculate onto whether their applications are adequate to power an entire OS running on top of Linux. Here are the main Google applications:

1. Gmail: Good enough. Many people use it's web interface exclusively already.
2. Docs: Has come a long way so maybe. A year ago I would have said no way. But recently I've given docs another try and have been impressed. Finally you have fixed page view and print preview. Also, docs gives a way to collaborate that other office clients can't.
3. Calendar: Good, same as Gmail.
4. Picasa for Photos: Good, same as Gmail.
5. Media Player: ? I don't know what Google has up their sleeves for this. You have Youtube, but what if people want to watch a DVD for instance. I don't know of a Google App for that.
6. Reader: Same as Gmail.
7. Voice and Video: You guys have to check this out.
8. Viewing arbitrary files: ? Some files will be easy like .pdf files. Like the media player, I don't know how Google will handle the wide range of file formats that exist.
9. Google Labs: I could keep going on but I think by now you get the point.

There are more things I could discuss but by now you get the point. For most things I believe a Google OS will be adequate for most people. There are a few things like a media player that I will be interested in seeing what they do.

However, someone like me still needs a terminal and numerical software so I don't if this Chrome OS will work for me. We will have to see. I always have a free Linux alternative in Ubuntu.

Update: Google OS Will Be Linux Based

Okay, I can officially state that Google's OS will be Linux based, open sourced and developed using an open source community model just as it should be. From the official Google blog:

Google Chrome OS is an open source, lightweight operating system that will initially be targeted at netbooks. Later this year we will open-source its code, and netbooks running Google Chrome OS will be available for consumers in the second half of 2010. Because we're already talking to partners about the project, and we'll soon be working with the open source community, we wanted to share our vision now so everyone understands what we are trying to achieve.

The software architecture is simple — Google Chrome running within a new windowing system on top of a Linux kernel...

We have a lot of work to do, and we're definitely going to need a lot of help from the open source community to accomplish this vision.

One interesting thing, if you read the whole post and know anything about Ubuntu's future goals, Google and Ubuntu basically have the same goals over the next sic months. The main features and users thay are targeting are the same: Fast boot time, netbook and ARM support, very web-centric, and very light weight. In fact, one of Ubuntu's main goals is to port Google's Android. Hmmm.

Maybe there is nothing to this but I wonder if part of the "open source community" Google hopes to work with includes Ubuntu.

Google Will Announce Operating System Tomorrow

From the NY Times:

In a direct challenge to Microsoft, Google announced late Tuesday that it is developing an operating system for PCs based on its Chrome Web browser...

In a post on its company blog, Google said the operating system would initially be aimed at netbooks, the compact, low-cost computers that have turned the PC world on its head. It said the open-source software, called Chrome OS, would be available in the second half of next year.

“Speed, simplicity and security are the key aspects of Google Chrome OS,” the blog post said. “We’re designing the OS to be fast and lightweight, to start up and get you onto the Web in a few seconds.”...

In an unusual move, Intel, the world’s largest chip maker, has worked on developing a Linux-based operating system called Moblin as well.

I don't know the details yet, I don't know that almost anyone does, but the reality is Google appears to be finally introducing an open source operating system and their tradition has been to support Linux. Intel is also developing their own Linux based operating system called Moblin. (It can boot up in ~5 seconds and looks really cool.)

Just don't be surprised, between Ubuntu, Red Hat, Intel and Google, if Linux really starts taking off in the next year or so. Furthermore, don't be surprised if the future is an open sourced one, with Linux leading the way.

Hope Future Ubuntu Is That Good.

Matt Asay is a prominent software blogger, whose father is a mission president interestingly enough. (I discovered this when he blogged about how one of Red Hat's board members is becoming a mission president.)

Anyways, being the prominent software blogger he is, Mark Shuttleworth who runs the Ubuntu Linux Project sat down with him to show off the future of Ubuntu. This is what he had to say about it:

I got a sneak peek at a future Ubuntu release while at dinner with Canonical founder Mark Shuttleworth Wednesday night, and it was gorgeous. Mac freak I may be, but the day Canonical releases that version of Ubuntu is the day my devotion to Apple will be severely tested.

Yes, it's that good.

When high profile "Mac freaks" tell you their devotion will be tested, that can mean a lot. I hope it will turn out to be "that good".

Hard Numbers On Linux Desktop Adoption.

If you were to only examine the "enterprise" world, Linux's numbers would look much better than this, but these numbers are still good.

NetApplications’ hitslink.com measures marketshare by percentages of OS's accessing webpages, and hence a good measure of the "desktop" marketshare. This is the market that represents normal lay people's computer use.

As you can see from the graph below, Linux's marketshare has grown 300% in the last 4 years. If this rate continues, Linux would be the dominant OS by 2025.



Another way to look at it is to notice Ubuntu did not release their first "stable LTS" version until April 2006. If you look closely, the data could be interpreted as if Linux was flat-lined until Ubuntu matured, than has grown at a rate of 300% in 3 years. If Ubuntu is responsible for all this, and the trend continues, Ubuntu could be the dominant OS by 2020. Next decade could be the decade Ubuntu overthrew the desktop OS market.

At least this data suggests my prediction is possibly coming true. The only way average lay people could migrate to Ubuntu is if the market took it seriously. The market couldn't really take Ubuntu seriously when it is a > 2-sigma outlier. ( < 2% of marketshare) However, by this data it could be Ubuntu overcomes being a 2-sigma outlier sometime next year.

Ubuntu 9.04 Is Ready To Order For Free

The new Ubuntu 9.04 will be released soon, and you can now sign up to order your free copy. Ubuntu is still not ready yet for the average computer user, in my opinion, but for any computer savy person who wants a free great working desktop 9.04 will be a winner.

Even if you aren't computer savy, like I was when I first used Linux, but have the ability and drive to learn and experience new things, this release is for you. Seriously, you might be surprised how much you like it. You can safely try it out running it off of the CD without any alteration to your system.

Please Don't Complian About Install Difficulty

This is not the most objective test in the world, but it is more objective then any we've discussed. Slashdot ran an article called Ubuntu Wipes Windows 7 In Benchmarks comparing Windows 7, Vista and Ubuntu Linux and had this to say:

Recent and controversial benchmarks for Windows 7 leave an important question unanswered: 'Is it faster than GNU/Linux?' Here, at last, is a benchmark that pits Ubuntu, Vista and Windows 7 against each other on the same modern hardware. From install time to GUI efficiency, Ubuntu beats Windows and is often twice as fast.

Part of the reason the install time is better is it takes only 7 mouse clicks to install the current Ubuntu 8.10 compared to 12 for Vista and 14 for Windows 7. Furthermore, it takes ~800-900 seconds to install Ubuntu verses 1200-1400 to install either Vista or Windows 7. A full Ubuntu install requires 2.3 gigabites of space whereas both Vista and Windows 7 require 8.

Again, these are not the perfect objective tests that cover all the bases. But do recognise, in many respects, installing Ubuntu is easier. (The performance benchmarks faovr Ubuntu as well. :) )

More NYTimes Ubuntu Goodness!

The French government has learned it is saving money switching from Windows to Ubuntu. Now France wants to influence the rest of Europe to join them. From the New York Times:

If the French National Assembly gets its way, the open-source Linux operating system will take over the governments of Europe, seizing on a weak economy to displace Windows.

About 18 months ago, the Assembly shifted from running Windows on the 1,100 computers of its members and their assistants to running a version of Linux called Ubuntu. (I profiled the rise of Ubuntu in a recent article.) According to Rudy Salles, vice president of the assembly, the decision to abandon Microsoft’s Windows software was both an economic and political gesture.

The French Parliament should save about 500,000 euros over the next five years, thanks to the low price of Ubuntu –- free –- and have lower management costs. Linux tends to have fewer security issues than Windows, for example.

As Ubuntu continues to gain worldwide acceptance and use by people with money for support, like governments, you will see Ubuntu to continue to improve.

The Real Reason To Use Ubuntu: You Might Drop Out Of School

Just to prove I can be two sided about this issue:

MCFARLAND (WKOW) -- Abbie Schubert paid more than $1,100 for a Dell laptop hoping to enroll in online classes at MATC.

But something stopped her: Ubuntu.

That's an operating system for your computer similar to Windows that runs off the Linux system.

Schubert says she ordered her laptop online at Dell.com expecting to buy your classic bread-and-butter computer.

She didn't realize until the next morning her laptop defaulted to the Ubuntu operating system.

"It's been a mess," she said. "I regret ordering the computer."

Schubert says she never heard of Ubuntu before learning that's when she accidentally bought. She called Dell the very next day and says the representative told her there was still time to change back to Windows.

But she says Dell discouraged her.

"The person I was talking to said Ubuntu was great, college students loved it, it was compatible with everything I needed," said Schubert.

So she stuck with it.

Later, she discovered Ubuntu might look like Windows, but it doesn't always act like it.

Her Verizon High-Speed Internet CD won't load, so she can't access the internet. She also can't install Microsoft Word, which she says is a requirement for MATC's online classes.

As a result, with no internet and no Microsoft Word, Schubert dropped out of MATC's fall and spring semesters.

She also says Dell claimed it was now too late to get Windows and any changes she made herself would void her warranty.

"I'm extremely frustrated," said Schubert. "I wanted to get back to school, but I needed a computer to be able to do that."

27 News contacted Dell, but the company has not responded to us yet.

However, we think we've helped her get back to school.

Verizon says it will dispatch a technician to try to assist her accessing the internet without using the Windows-only installation disk.

MATC also says it promises to accept any of Schubert's papers or class documents using whatever software she has installed.

Very Honest Assessment of Ubuntu, by New York Times

The New York Times had a 3 page piece today on Ubuntu which I believe is the most honest and correct statement that could be made: by most conventional metrics, Ubuntu is a long shot from going mainstream on a level comparible with Microsoft, but of all Microsoft alternatives, Ubuntu has the most promise and just may surprise us all.

(Speaking of honest comments, please don't critique Ubuntu by saying you don't like Linux because you need a GUI and hate command lines. Anyone who has actually used Ubuntu 8.10 and is honest will admit you don't need command lines any more. I have italicised the correct quote below for such people. There's GUIs for everything and it is getting pretty darn user friendly.)

Here are some comments from the article worth sharing:

"THEY’RE either hapless pests or the very people capable of overthrowing Windows. Take your pick... Created just over four years ago, Ubuntu (pronounced oo-BOON-too) has emerged as the fastest-growing and most celebrated version of the Linux operating system, which competes with Windows primarily through its low, low price: $0.

More than 10 million people are estimated to run Ubuntu today, and they represent a threat to Microsoft’s hegemony in developed countries and perhaps even more so in those regions catching up to the technology revolution...

“I think Ubuntu has captured people’s imaginations around the Linux desktop,” said Chris DiBona, the program manager for open-source software at Google. “If there is a hope for the Linux desktop, it would be them.”

Close to half of Google’s 20,000 employees use a slightly modified version of Ubuntu, playfully called Goobuntu.

PEOPLE encountering Ubuntu for the first time will find it very similar to Windows. The operating system has a slick graphical interface, familiar menus and all the common desktop software: a Web browser, an e-mail program, instant-messaging software and a free suite of programs for creating documents, spreadsheets and presentations...

Mainstream technology companies have taken notice of the enthusiasm around Ubuntu. Dell started to sell PCs and desktops with the software in 2007, and I.B.M. more recently began making Ubuntu the basis of a software package that competes against Windows...

The technology research firm IDC estimates that 11 percent of American businesses have systems based on Ubuntu. That said, many of the largest Ubuntu customers have cropped up in Europe, where Microsoft’s dominance has endured intense regulatory and political scrutiny.

The Macedonian education department relies on Ubuntu, providing 180,000 copies of the operating system to children, while the Spanish school system has 195,000 Ubuntu desktops. In France, the National Assembly and the Gendarmerie Nationale, the military police force, rely on Ubuntu for a combined 80,000 PCs. “The word ‘free’ was very important,” said Rudy Salles, vice president of the assembly, noting that it allowed the legislature to abandon Microsoft...

Canonical, based in London, has more than 200 full-time employees, but its total work force stretches well beyond that, through an army of volunteers...Microsoft had an estimated 10,000 people working on Vista, its newest desktop operating system, for five years.

CANONICAL’S model makes turning a profit difficult.

Many open-source companies give away a free version of their software that has some limitations, while selling a full-fledged version along with complementary services for keeping the software up to date. Canonical gives away everything, including its top product, then hopes that companies will still turn to it for services like managing large groups of servers and desktops instead of handling everything themselves with in-house experts.

Canonical also receives revenue from companies like Dell that ship computers with Ubuntu and work with it on software engineering projects like adding Linux-based features to laptops. All told, Canonical’s annual revenue is creeping toward $30 million, Mr. Shuttleworth said.

That figure won’t worry Microsoft.

But Mr. Shuttleworth contends that $30 million a year is self-sustaining revenue, just what he needs to finance regular Ubuntu updates. And a free operating system that pays for itself, he says, could change how people view and use the software they touch everyday...

“Mark is very genuine and fundamentally believes in open source,” said Matt Asay, a commentator on open-source technology and an executive at the software maker Alfresco. “But I think he’s going to have a crisis of faith at some point.”

Mr. Asay wonders if Canonical can sustain its “give everything away” model and “always open” ideology.

Canonical shows no signs of slowing down or changing course anytime soon.

Ubuntu's Latest 2010 Commitment.

I have probably annoyed you with all my Ubuntu jargon, but it is good to see that the latest statements coming from Mark Shuttleworth, Ubuntu's benevolent dictator, are in line with my 2010 prediction.

Earlier this year Mark promised "'delivering a user experience that can compete with Apple in two years'". How does he plan to do this (taking an analogy with web design):

"When you present yourself on the web, you have 15 seconds to make an impression, so aspiring champions of the web 2.0 industry have converged on a good recipe for success:

1. Make your site visually appealing,
2. Do something different and do it very, very well,
3. Call users to action and give them an immediate, rewarding experience.

We need the same urgency, immediacy and elegance as part of the free software desktop experience, and that's an area where Canonical will, I hope, make a significant contribution. We are hiring designers, user experience champions and interaction design visionaries and challenging them to lead not only Canonical's distinctive projects but also to participate in GNOME, KDE and other upstream efforts to improve FLOSS (Free/Libre/Open Source Software) usability...

Increasingly, though, Canonical is in a position to drive real change in the software that is part of Ubuntu...

All of this has me tapdancing to work in the mornings, because we’re sketching out really interesting ideas for user interaction... in the desktop. The team has come together very nicely, and I’m thoroughly enjoying the processes, brainstorming and prototyping. I can’t wait to see those ideas landing in production!

Here's for a 2010 release that can go toe to toe with Mac!

Movement Increasing To Make Linux Mainstream

Today IBM announced it is partnering with Ubuntu, Red Hat and Suse and hardware manufacturers to flood the world with Linux machines.

From MarketWatch:

For the first time, IBM and leading Linux distributors Canonical/Ubuntu, Novell and Red Hat will join forces globally with their hardware partners to deliver Microsoft-free personal computing choices with Lotus Notes and Lotus Symphony in the one billion-unit desktop market worldwide by 2009.

Citing shifting market forces and the growing demand for economical alternatives to costly Windows and Office-based computers, the four leaders sense an ideal set of circumstances allowing Linux-based desktops to proliferate in the coming year. Linux is far more profitable for a PC vendor and the operating system is better equipped to work with lower cost hardware than new Microsoft technology.

There were other articles I was going to post speculating that you will see Ubuntu preinstalled in most major retail stores by the end of the year, but they are only blogs.

I don't know how much market share will come from this, but it can only be a good thing that more and more big name companies with money endorse Linux. (PS. I still haven't spent a dime on software in years!)

Purchase Ubuntu at Best Buy and an Angel Will Get Their Wings

Okay, maybe I went to far with the angel getting wings part.

Ubuntu is officially partnering with Best Buy to sell Ubuntu for $20 for those people who would rather buy it at a store and have commercial support then download it and burn it for free themselves with no support.

Even more crazy, people from Best Buy will come to your house and install it for you for $130!

I think this is a very good move. First, it will bring in extra income to Ubuntu. But more importantly, for whatever reason, most *normal* people would rather buy software for $20 at Best Buy that comes with commercial support then download it and burn it to a disk for free and use the free types of support.

Take my grandparents for example. They have an old computer where they don't really use it anymore. They told me they would like to try Ubuntu on it just to see what I was talking about. I said we'd just have to download it, burn it to a CD and install it. They have the attitude it would be easier to just buy it at the store while they were out. Also, when an issue happens they what commercial support, not some online forum to solve their problems.

So, like always, I think Ubuntu is leading they way in doing things the Linux Desktop needs to do to go mainstream. First, get the stuff pre-installed on computers. Next, get it in stores so people can buy it to give it a try and have commercial support. Next, they need to find a way to advertise.

By the way, as I've already stated, Ubuntu is still free to download. (They'll even still ship it to your house for free.) This is just for the average Joe who wants their software shrink-wrapped and in their favorite store and is will to pay to have it that way.

Ubuntu Leads to NBA Championship.

I have to confess I was hoping the Lakers could win the NBA Championship being the home town favorite and all.

However, I was kicking against the pricks. The Boston Celtic motto is: Ubuntu. They thought Ubuntu would lead the to a championship and of course Ubuntu delivered. Boston Celtics are now the 2008 NBA Champions.

One Last Ubuntu Update

Probably the most honest article why Ubuntu is ready for the average person: The Great Ubuntu-Girlfriend Experiment. This article, better than any I have read recently, describes the kinds of things Ubuntu needs to work on: for the average person. (More technical people will have different things to complain about.)

Number data. Companies one by one continue to pre-install Ubuntu, but few release numbers. A Russian company started selling Ubuntu pre-installed last year. So far they have sold 50,000 computers and predict at the rate things are growing, this year there will be 300,000 pre-installed computers sold in Russia alone. Story comes from Cnews.

Again, I wish I knew more numbers from more companies, but I think the above rate of growth will continue to encourage "the market" to work harder at officially supporting Ubuntu.

New Ubuntu Release

Yesterday, a new version of Ubuntu was released. This release will be one of their more stable releases and will be supported for several years. (However, if you want real stable stability I would wait for the "service pack style" update in a few months. That gives them a few more months to work out tricky bugs).

Several people are giving it great reviews, take for example eweek with Ubuntu 8.04 Is Ready to Take On Windows. or Hardy Heron Makes Linux Worth Another Look.

Without going into details let me say a few comments:

1. Linux is not ready for the average Joe... yet.
2. This release keeps them on pace to their 2010 stable release that I have predicted will give all people a serious reason to consider switching to Linux from Windows or Mac.
3. With this release, Linux is ready for any and all people who have above average computing skills with the time and patience to spend a few hours each week for a few weeks learning about how Linux works.
4. Anybody, in a scientific field, will find it as easy, if not easier to to get science done with this recent Ubuntu release than with Windows or a Mac. That includes computer programming, linking to super-computers, analyzing data, doing LaTeX, etc...
   
5. This version can be installed on a Windows machine without re-partitioning your hard drive. Now you can install Ubuntu without any risk to messing up your computer.

I really think Linux is almost ready for the masses. Below I will list the things keeping it back, but these things can, and are being resolved as we speak. I am not claiming all people will adopt Linux over night in two years. But I am claiming Linux will be at a point where there will be no other compelling reason not to switch other than, in the words of one of my favorite musicals: Tradition! or "I'm to used too Windows/Mac to even want give it a try".

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make them drink.

Areas where Linux needs improvement:

1. Networking- (Next version of Ubuntu has this as main feature worked on.)
2. Power Management-(Things like using less power and suspending better. )
3. Corporate Backing-(This is happening better than most would imagine.)
4. Pre-installed (Now Dell, HP, Lenovo and more pre-install Linux on desktops and laptops. Just to remind people, this started just last year. Now every few months someone new is pre-installing linux.)
5. Better Hardware drivers- (I hesitate to say this is a problem since every 6 months Linux gets noticablly better in this area. It is almost there.)
   
6. More technically savoy people to give it an honest try. (If you have trouble composing an email message wait two more years.)
7. Eye Candy - (Linux needs to make people look at the screen and say, wow, I wish my OS looked that pretty.) (This feature is what draws people to Apple.)
   

Red Hat, Ubuntu top vendor's usage study

Okay, I am going to take a break from political posts for a while since I have probably been over the top again. I really am sorry. I will remove any post I am asked to.

I other news, Ubuntu is catching up with Red Hat. From the Washington Post:

Among Linux operating systems, usage of Ubuntu and Red Hat stood at 35 percent and 23 percent, respectively, according to the survey... Suse Enterprise collectively garnered 13 percent.

The reason this is such news is the above study was done for Enterprise usage. For several years, Red Hat and Novell's Suse have dominated Enterprise computing. But companies, using open source software, bring in hundreds of millions in revenue each year.

Ubuntu has been only around for a few years, and may have already surpassed Novell's Suse in the Enterprise sector! To me, this is amazing. I would have never guessed it would happen so quickly! Not too long ago, like 6 months ago, all the experts were saying things like: "sure Ubuntu is nice for installing on a home PC, but it will never be on the same footing as Red Hat/Novell for Enterprise use."

Well my friends, think again! Ubuntu is taking the Linux world by storm. I still predict it is a couple years away before it will begin to take the rest of computing by storm. But in a couple years, watch out. Things won't turn upsidedown over night, but I think Microsoft and Apple will be a little surprised by the future competition as the years go on.

Ubuntu 7.10 Released, Delivering the Best of Open Source Software

LONDON, October 15, 2007 – Canonical Ltd. announced today the upcoming availability of version 7.10 of the Ubuntu Server, Desktop, Kubuntu and Edubuntu Editions. All will be available for free download on Thursday 18 October. Canonical is the commercial sponsor of Ubuntu.

Ubuntu makes no distinction between community and enterprise editions, Ubuntu 7.10 is our best work and is available freely to all. Ubuntu has consistently ranked #1 in reviews of security update responsiveness and effectiveness. The Ubuntu platform is fully certified and supported, making it a secure choice for users looking to explore, deploy and enjoy Linux. Ubuntu 7.10 brings together the best open source and free software available in a stable, robust environment that 'just works'.

'We are privileged to have millions of users running Ubuntu every day". commented Jane Silber, COO of Canonical UK. 'This gives us great insight into what they want from a free, Linux-based platform. Ubuntu 7.10 is another milestone in delivering on these requirements on the desktop and server.'

Ubuntu 7.10 Desktop Edition adds an enhanced user interface, improved hardware support, multiple monitor support and integrated desktop search. Additional information is available at http://www.ubuntu.com/news/ubuntu-desktop710.

Ubuntu 7.10 Server Edition features improved functionality, manageability, pro-active security and hardware compatibility and delivers a rapid deployment platform for developers and businesses. Additional information is available at http://www.ubuntu.com/news/ubuntu-server710.

New versions of Kubuntu and Edubuntu, derivatives of Ubuntu aimed at KDE enthusiasts and the education community respectively, are also being released at the same time. Additional information is available at http://www.ubuntu.com/news/ubuntu-family710.