Iraq Update

1. The New York Times is reporting that various things about Iraq are looking better. The article is entitled: A War We Just Might Win. CNN interviewed the main author today who said he didn't pick the title, the New York Times did. What he says is for the first time *ever* some things look like they are improving. He said the country is still at least *50-60* years away from being as stable like Switzerland, but at least the country might be able to function somewhat the next year or two. His advice to democratic leaders is wait until 2008, then consider bringing the troops home. Starting now is too early. His strategy sounds familiar. From the above article:

"How much longer should American troops keep fighting and dying to build a new Iraq while Iraqi leaders fail to do their part? And how much longer can we wear down our forces in this mission? These haunting questions underscore the reality that the surge cannot go on forever. But there is enough good happening on the battlefields of Iraq today that Congress should plan on sustaining the effort at least into 2008."

2. We have to do something about Iraq's leadership. The above article and the author's CNN interview state the biggest problem Iraq faces is terrible leadership: a government that just isn't working. Furthermore, Iraq's prime minister Nouri al-Maliki suposedly hates general Petraeus and his new strategy. (The one that may for the first time be working in some respects.) If we are lucky both we and they will soon get some competent leadership. From the Washington Post:

"A key aide says Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's relations with Gen. David Petraeus are so poor the Iraqi leader may ask Washington to withdraw the overall U.S. commander from his Baghdad post...It seems less a clash of personality than of policy. The Shiite Muslim prime minister has reacted most sharply to the American general's tactic of enlisting Sunni militants, presumably including past killers of Iraqi Shiites, as allies in the fight against al-Qaida here."

Rising Suport for the Iraq War?

In either a show of changing opinions or just how fickle the American public really is, the latest New York Times/CBS poll reported by the New York Times Online (available here) showed that last week "42 percent of Americans said taking military action in Iraq was the right thing to do, while 51 percent said the United States should have stayed out of Iraq. Support had been at all time low in May, when only 35 percent of Americans said the United States’ involvement in Iraq was the right thing and 61 percent said the United States should have stayed out."

Does this mean that the American public is actually being patient with the troop surge, as President Bush has requested? Does it mean that the troop surge is changing public opinion? Or could it be that summer just makes Americans more upbeat about everything? It is impossible to know for sure, but it seems to me that this troop surge may be at least in part responsible.

Mike Besselman, who served in the Navy, said something a few months ago about the Iraq War that I think is very true. He said that we cannot fight the Iraq War half-way. We either need to commit the forces needed or get our people out of harms way. I can't help but wonder if this troop surge was at least closer to committing the forces necessary to accomplish the mission in Iraq. The real question is what happens if the troop surge really is working? Even the most optimistic US commanders think it will take at least several more months for the surge to really be effective. Will the American public have that kind of patience? And, perhaps more importantly, will the Iraqi Government actually be able to get anything meaningful accomplished in that limited window of opportunity? If the answer to either of those questions is no, then I think President Bush should start drawing down troop numbers, focus on training the Iraqi army and fighting terrorism, and get our service men and women out from the middle of the Shite/Sunni conflict.

For more on one theory of how the US could safely reduce troop levels and keep Iraq from becoming totally unstable, check out this excellent article from Time Magazine.