We've been posting about politics for about a week now, so I thought I'd set down my thoughts on the whole mess. I should preface this by saying that I believe Obama will be the democratic nominee, so most of my comments will be made with that supposition. Here they are, in no particular order:
1) Both Obama and McCain have issues connecting with some of their parties' core constituencies. McCain is distrusted by the religious right and Obama is having a hard time connecting to working class democrats, which are flocking to Clinton.
2) While the religious right obviously distrusts McCain, I think they will come around in the general election. They've been working for 20 years to get a conservative majority on the Supreme Court and they'll realize that a Democratic presidency over the next 4 years could spoil all that work.
3) Obama has an almost rock-star like following, but sooner or later his inexperience is going to bite him. He's already said he'd like to remove combat troops from Iraq within 60 days of becoming president, which military planners consider simply impossible without wasting billions in lost military equipment and severely destabilizing the country. Eventually, Obama will slip up because he honestly doesn't know the ropes like McCain does, especially in foreign policy.
4) Eventually, McCain's temper and propensity to speak his mind will cause him to say something he shouldn't. In 2000, one of main reasons he lost the nomination to George W. Bush was that he called Bob Jones University (which at the time banned inter-racial dating) a bunch of intolerant extremists. He may have been right, but it really rubbed the religious right the wrong way and it may have cost him the nomination. Sooner or later, he'll get ticked off at somebody and say something he shouldn't.
5) The Obama-McCain campaign (given their straight-talking, positive campaigning styles) should include an open, honest debate about shaping our country's foreign policy for the next 10-20 years. Basically, McCain argues that the war on terror can only be won through force. Obama argues that the use of force is only causing us to lose the war on terror. I think this is the issue that will define our generation's place in history. Is this World War II or Vietnam? McCain and Obama can't both be right, so the question is which do you believe and who can make a better case for their views.
Nick, good post. However, I would like to clear up one thing:
ReplyDelete"He's already said he'd like to remove combat troops from Iraq within 60 days of becoming president, which military planners consider simply impossible without wasting billions in lost military equipment and severely destabilizing the country."
He wants to begin withdrawing within 60 days. He knows it will take over a year to fully get them out of the country. He hopes to have them fully out in 16 months after taking office.
Watch the last democratic debate from CNN to verify this.