I Bet I Will Go To Space One Day.

I may be buying too much into this article by Reuters, buy I take from it I may go to space one day.  Here's why:

1. People should start flying into space by 2013. (Testing starts next year, 2011.)
2. The entire project will cost ~$450 million dollars.
3. Tickets go for $200,000.
4. They claim 100,000 people have expressed interest.  If even ~2500 actually do it, the program will pay for itself.
5. I'm betting much more than 2500 will go if 100,000 have expressed interest. (Only ~1%!)
6. # 5 implies there is a real profit to be made.

Given how economics works, major profits are sure to lead to major competition.  Furthermore, after the initial technology is developed, further development should be much cheaper.

For these reasons I expect the ticket prices should half at least about every ~10 years.  This means in 40 years, I should be able to afford to go. (I'll be in my sixties and hopefully this being a commercial thing means my body could still handle it. )

And if the price could somehow half somehow every 5 years, I could go even sooner. :)

NASA, maybe it's good your human space flight budget is being cut.  Sir Richard Branson looks like he can do it much cheaper and in a way that normal Americans can really experience it. (Once the cost drops.)